Electric bicycle on the industry windfall, how to see its future trend?

2020 can be said to be a year of rain and snow, an epidemic attack, so that countless industries have fallen. But the two-wheeled e-bike market has "bounced back" from the epidemic, with sales soaring.

In the European market, European e-bike industry experts said that in 2019, Europe's e-bike sales of 3.7 million units, 2020 will achieve 23% growth, is expected to maintain the rapid development of the European e-bike market in the future, sales are expected to increase to 17 million units in 2030.

And China's electric bicycle market is also hot. Since the implementation of the new national standard, China's electric bicycle industry ushered in a new round of reshuffle, the sales did not drop but increased. 2019 China's electric bicycle market sales of 13 times 18 years, the impact of the epidemic is accelerating the development of the industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology data show that as of October, China's electric bicycle production of 25.48.0 million units, an increase of 33.4 percent year-on-year.

Two-wheeled electric bicycle 2020: head players usher in the highlight moment, the industry's changes and unchanged

Reviewing the whole two-wheeled electric bicycle market in 2020, there is no doubt that players in the U.S., Hong Kong and A-share markets have all ushered in their own highlight moments. So, how should we look at the future trend of two-wheeled electric vehicles from the perspective of the industry?

Stand on the industry wind, two-wheeled electric on the stage again

In 2020, several domestic electric bicycle enterprises leading can be described as a long way red. Hong Kong shares of Yadi Holdings, A shares of New Day shares, U.S. shares of Maverick Electric in the field of electric bicycles to earn a lot of money, the industry's new power nine companies are also harvesting a lot.

A closer look at the financial situation of each company, Yadi turnover in the first half of the year reached 7.669 billion yuan, revenue scale in the lead. And several other domestic industry giants, revenue scale from high to low is the new day, calf and nine. It is worth mentioning that so far in 2019, Yadi has been in the first place among listed companies, while the Nine has also achieved a turnaround after receiving financing from Xiaomi and Sequoia.

Sales. By the end of November 2020, Yadi Holdings' two-wheeled electric vehicle sales have reached 10 million units, which equates to a significant increase of nearly 60% compared to 6.09 million units in the whole of 2019. Following closely behind is Xinri, which sold 3.56 million two-wheeled electric vehicles in the first three quarters of 2020, up 23.5 percent year-on-year. Maverick Electric sold a total of 160,138 electric scooters in the first two quarters of 2020, with sales up 61.2 percent year-on-year. The ninth electric, which just stepped into the electric vehicle market, has also exceeded 100,000 units in 2020 sales.

On the profit level, Yadi's first half-year turnover reached 7.66 billion yuan, up 87.5% year-on-year; total profit of 3.86 billion yuan, up 113.2% year-on-year. The new quarterly report shows that the first three quarters revenue of 4.36 billion yuan, an increase of 78.54% year-on-year; total net profit of 124 million yuan, an increase of 38.44%. Maverick's revenue for the second quarter was 6.45 billion yuan, up 21.6 percent year-on-year; net profit for the second quarter was 56.8 million yuan, up 11.4 percent year-on-year. The nine combined revenue of 4.318 billion yuan, an increase of 557 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 14.80 percent; net profit of 85.072 million yuan, a turnaround from last year. Revenue scale from high to low is Yadi leading, followed by the new day, calf, and finally the end of the nine.

Overall, these four electric bicycle enterprise representatives of the comprehensive performance are not bad. Plus this year, the electric bicycle market trend is going well, making the market value of these families are surging up.

Two-wheeled electric bicycle 2020: head players usher in the high moment, the industry's changes and unchanged

Hong Kong shares of Yadi Holdings this year's share price soared 640%, market value broke 36 billion yuan; U.S. shares of Maverick Electric, share price rose 230%, market value broke 13.8 billion yuan; A shares of the new day shares, share price rose 120%, market value broke 6.1 billion yuan; industry new forces, the nine companies also by this wave of dividends, share price rose 323%, market value broke 56.3 billion. Among these car company representatives, the share price keeps rising, the market value is changing non-stop every day, and there is a significant increase compared to last year.

Two-wheeled electric vehicle 2020: head players usher in the high moment, the industry's changes and unchanged

Two-wheeled electric vehicle 2020: head players usher in the highlight moment, the industry's changes and unchanged

Two-wheeled EV 2020: Head players usher in highlight moment, changes and unchanges in the industry

On the one hand, the introduction of the new national standard policy may stimulate a new wave of two-wheeled electric vehicles, market analysis has been more, there is no need to elaborate; on the other hand, it is also influenced by the need to keep social distance from the epidemic at the beginning of the year, but back to the electric vehicle itself, the dividend wave will eventually recede one day, how to think about the longer-term development is the key.

Three provinces, two-wheeled electric still need to seek a breakthrough

The emergence of the epidemic at the beginning of the year has significantly curtailed people's outings, making more and more people choose to order take-out, which has given the take-out industry a strong boost. In this situation, the number of take-out workers continues to soar, and the demand for two-wheeled electric vehicles has grown significantly.

Various factors such as the epidemic and the rise of takeaway have influenced the market sentiment, while market sentiment has also become an important factor in the stock price.

However, the current epidemic has long been normalized and this dividend wave is gradually fading away. The long-term outlook of the industry is more important, and finding new growth points in the market has become the most accurate choice for enterprises.

At present, the electric two-wheeled vehicle into the industry's mature development stage, the number of enterprises in the industry every year shows a decreasing trend. With the implementation of the new national standard, the speed of liquidation of electric two-wheeled vehicle enterprises in China will be further increased, promoting the electric bicycle industry in China from high-speed development to high-quality development.

Zhang Peng, CFO of Maverick Electric, said that the cost of electric cores generally accounts for about one-third of the cost, and if the cost of electric cores drops by 10 percent, the cost actually drops by 3.3 percent. "China with the development of the EV market, the entire battery core capacity also expanded, is expected to the entire cost of the core and down space, which will also give gross profit continued to improve a relatively good opportunity. 

The side shows the technical level for the industry to set the threshold, promote the transformation of lead-acid batteries to lithium batteries, reduce production costs, forcing the whole industry to high-end adjustment, but also to further promote the whole industry concentration, the strength of the enterprise is expected to show the "horse effect", while the strength is not strong, technology laggards will be eliminated from the game.

The further implementation of the new national standard will accelerate industry consolidation, and a large number of electric bicycles will be eliminated because they are not qualified. There will be a big change in market vehicle ownership. During the buffer period of 3 to 5 years, hundreds of millions of two-wheeled electric bikes will be released for replacement. In the next 3 to 5 years later, causing the market wave to explode, the annual sales of electric vehicles in China will be more than twice as much as now, and the output value will be 5 times as much as now.

When the market consolidation ends and enters a stable period, the brand companies will be in the dominant position of the industry. The growth of the company's performance may become the main factor to drive the increase of market value. And investors enjoy more is the performance growth of the stock price return.

It is worth thinking about how industry leaders such as Yadi, Sunrise and Maverick can create long-term value and be favored by more capital market investors.

Seeking development in "5G" and seeking new life in "overseas

The implementation of the new national standard has made a large number of enterprises with weak technology withdraw from the historical stage, and the development of 5G has also made true intelligence a new demand for electric bikes.

As a new force in the electric bicycle field, Nine Electric seems to have seized the gap in the industry field. It realizes the combination of 5G intelligence and electric bicycle. Keyless unlocking changes the traditional electric bicycle unlocking method; the whole body is full of sensors, which can realize the induction of the ride, realizing the transformation of the traditional electric bicycle from a "functional machine" to a "smart machine".

The trend of 5G+intelligence has arrived, and the traditional "functional machine" seems to have failed to meet the needs of users, so it is necessary to break the traditional barriers and realize the combination of electric bicycle and 5G intelligence.

However, this trend seems to be less friendly to the old brand, and to traditional brands like Yadi, Xinri and Aima, their own ability to innovate is lacking. With the rapid development of 5G interconnection and artificial intelligence technology, they are too little involved in the field of 5G technology and will face some technical problems in the future.

In fact, whether it is traditional EV brands or new forces, there are still large technical barriers in the future state of 5G connectivity.

However, China, as the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter of electric bicycles, the continued growth of domestic and foreign demand has ushered in development opportunities for China's electric bicycle industry. Relevant data show that in terms of exports, from 2017 to 2020, the number of exports of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China has increased year by year, and from January to October 2020, the number of exports has reached the level of the whole year of 2019, with a total of 13.82.09 million units exported, indicating strong growth in the foreign trade export market of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China.

Two-wheeled electric vehicles 2020: head players usher in the high moment, the industry's changes and unchanged

(Source: Foresight Industry Research Institute)

Li Yan, CEO of Maverick Electric, introduced that at present, Maverick Electric's overseas business accounts for 17% of the company's total revenue, and the company will continue to increase its overseas business in the future and raise the overseas business revenue to 22%-25% in the short and medium term. And Yadi has also established overseas production bases in Southeast Asia and other places, and started to increase the layout in the high-end market.

The layout of these companies fully illustrates the trend of the electric bicycle industry to develop business in overseas markets, and electric bicycle companies are not only limited to the domestic market, overseas will also be a market worth exploring in the long term.

From a comprehensive point of view, under the trend of intelligent era, all industries are actively seeking changes. It can be predicted that, under the general trend of gradually strengthening the awareness of green environment, the competition of the future two-wheeled electric bicycle track will only become more intense, and whether they can keep up with the times and the needs of the times in terms of technology will be the key factor whether they can get the market's continued attention.
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***